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# Biomass Carbon Trend (CarbonFlux)
- URL: https://lemu-web.prie.to/docs/indicators/biomass-carbon-trend-carbonflux/
- Published: 2025-08-30T03:36:46.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-12T16:12:34.000Z
- Description: Analysis of long-term trends (2001–2022) in total biomass carbon, identifying whether ecosystems are gaining, losing, or maintaining carbon stocks.
- Author: Lemu
- Tags: Indicators, #docs-col, #group-carbon, #group-lemu

### Description

This indicator tracks whether biomass carbon has increased, decreased, or remained stable from 2001 to 2022\. It applies the Mann-Kendall trend test (Kendall Tau) to annual carbon stock estimates, producing a per-pixel measure of trend direction and strength.

Values range from -1 to 1:

- **\-1** represents a perfect decreasing trend (continuous carbon loss).
- **0** represents a neutral trend (no significant change).
- **+1** represents a perfect increasing trend (continuous carbon gain).

Intermediate values indicate mixed trajectories, where some years show accumulation and others show loss. A threshold is applied to classify values greater than 0.01 as positive, less than -0.01 as negative, and between -0.01 and 0.01 as neutral.

### What it measures

- Long-term trend in total biomass carbon.
- Areas of consistent carbon loss (deforestation, fires) or gain (restoration, regrowth).
- Neutral zones with stable carbon dynamics.

### How to interpret

- **Negative values (< -0.01):** ecosystems consistently losing biomass carbon.
- **Positive values (> 0.01):** ecosystems consistently accumulating carbon.
- **Neutral (-0.01 to 0.01):** no significant trend detected.

### Unit / Scale

Trend index (-1 to 1).  
Temporal coverage: 2001–2022.  
Spatial resolution: 309 m.  
Update frequency: Annual.

### Author / Source

Lemu — based on biomass carbon modelling.

Key sources include:

- Copernicus Climate Change Service ([C3S](https://lemu-web.prie.to/docs/alphabet/c3s-2/)): Land cover classification maps.
- Gibbs, H. K., & Ruesch, A. — [IPCC](https://lemu-web.prie.to/docs/alphabet/ipcc/) Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map (2000).
- Giglio, L., Justice, C., Boschetti, L., & Roy, D. (2021). [MODIS](https://lemu-web.prie.to/docs/alphabet/modis/) Burned Area Dataset ([NASA](https://lemu-web.prie.to/docs/alphabet/nasa/) EOSDIS).
- Hussain, M., & Mahmud, I. (2019). *pyMannKendall: A Python package for non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend tests*. *Journal of Open Source Software*, 4(39), 1556.

🔗 [https://climate.copernicus.eu](https://climate.copernicus.eu/?ref=lemu-web.prie.to)  
🔗 [https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds\_id=932](https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds%5Fid=932&ref=lemu-web.prie.to)

### Applications in Atlas

- Identify regions of persistent carbon loss to target conservation actions.
- Detect areas of carbon recovery through restoration or regrowth.
- Support climate reporting by showing carbon dynamics over two decades.
- Provide evidence for carbon offset projects and ecosystem resilience studies.

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